tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19079727177729619292024-02-19T08:22:12.801-05:00Forex IdiotAn idiot's journey into the world of Forex and expert advisors.Forex Idiothttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09791539197865041815noreply@blogger.comBlogger48125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1907972717772961929.post-90705280296310114052014-01-07T00:22:00.000-05:002014-01-07T00:38:20.459-05:00Turning $300 Into $1MIt's been over a year since I last wrote anything. I've been working and testing and winning and losing...<br />
<br />
I made a New Year's resolution late last year, in December. By the end of 2014, I want to be a millionaire. Don't have to be a multi-millionaire. One million is enough for me. Let's leave some goals for 2015.<br />
<br />
So, I checked my real money account and it is down to $335.80. How can I become a millionaire in 12 months with such a small starting capital? There has to be a way. If George Soros made $1B in one day, there has to be a way of making a miserly $1M in 365 days. Fire up the spreadsheet and... <br />
<br />
It is not that difficult! All I have to do is double my money every month. This should see me hitting the $1.3M mark sometime at the end of December 2014. Now, to break this down into individual targets. <br />
<br />
To double my money every month, I need to do about 17.06% per week. To hit this target, I must profit 3.2% daily and compound my winnings.<br />
<br />
Hmm, this puts things in a different perspective. I must make daily more profit than what your bank gives you in interest in a whole year. Doable, but harder than initially envisioned.<br />
<br />
With this in mind, I started my road to $1M last week, on Wednesday, January 1. My goal is to end the month with $671.48. This means I must end this week with an account balance of $418.64. That's a profit of 24.67% in seven working days.<br />
<br />
I may have bitten more than I can chew...Forex Idiothttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09791539197865041815noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1907972717772961929.post-72112433998319923552012-11-11T13:30:00.000-05:002012-11-12T18:02:34.800-05:00Week 6: Thank God it is Over!<br />
<div class="moz-text-html" lang="x-western">
<big>Week 6 was the roller coaster ride from Hell. On the good
side, I didn't have a heart attack so my arteries must have
cleared up a bit. <br />
<br />
So week 5 ends with my account up 80.39%. By Monday afternoon,
the account is up 101%. By Monday evening I'm visiting different
internet sites to see which power boat I'll be buying next year.
Then came Election Day... Obama won... reality hit the
markets... The account that was up 101% on Monday was barely up
64% Wednesday evening/Thursday morning. I did say in my last
report that I was expecting the market to triple play me, but
knowing beforehand does not make it any easier to swallow. In the
end, the account recovered most of its losses and ended down
2.08%. Since I was way ahead of schedule last week, this week's
loss puts me behind schedule by very little... 0.52% or $5.41.<br />
<br />
I was very impressed by the way most of my strategies managed to
recover their losses, except for one. The strategy I trade off
the daily chart gave me the biggest losses this week, after 5
weeks of picture perfect trades. I think the price action created
by the volatility of Election Day week was just too much for my
inexperience. I should have followed the lead of more veteran
traders and just held off from trading at all last week. Now I
know for 2016.<br />
<br />
</big><br />
<big><b>Starting Capital: </b>$1,040.73<br />
<b>Current Balance:</b> $1,838.31<br />
<br />
<b>Performance:</b> 76.64%<br />
</big><big><br />
<u><b>Week Performance<br />
</b></u> 1 13.14%<br />
2 17.71%<br />
3 <span style="color: red;">- 10.54%</span><br />
4 18.62%<br />
5 27.63%<br />
6 <span style="color: red;">- 2.08%</span> <br />
<br />
<i><b>CAS</b></i></big>
</div>
Forex Idiothttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09791539197865041815noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1907972717772961929.post-63441141742399893302012-11-02T19:00:00.000-04:002012-11-12T18:00:21.315-05:00CORRECTION!! Week 5: Unholy ProfitsThe actual percentage for the week was 27.63%, <b>NOT</b> 39.05%.<br />
<br />
Guess I'll have to keep waiting for that 30%+ winning week. :)Forex Idiothttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09791539197865041815noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1907972717772961929.post-7458461652578448092012-11-02T18:30:00.000-04:002012-11-12T17:45:59.194-05:00Week 5: Unholy Profits<br />
<div class="moz-text-html" lang="x-western">
<big>This was our fourth double digit winning week. To the tune of
39.05% for the week, I'd say our week was immorally good. A
couple of changes made mid-week contributed to our success, I
think. I got rid of a strategy that had lost me about $153 by
Wednesday. This is about 15% of our starting capital so it is not
acceptable. Although for the 5 weeks the strategy still netted us
a few percentage points, I'd rather get rid of it and put more
money in the strategies that are currently netting us higher
percentages. I also incorporated a new strategy that proved
surprisingly profitable in the 2.5 days that I traded it.
Although I do not expect any more 30%+ weeks in the rest of my
life, I hope that this week's changes will make the goal of 10%
profits per week easier to achieve.<br />
<br />
Last week, I was 5.07% behind schedule. I should've been up
46.41% and was up 41.34%. This week's performance now puts us
ahead of schedule by 19.34%. Target profit for Week 5 was
$1,676.11 or 61.05%. At the close of trading today, our balance
was $1,877.37 or 80.39%. Target for Week 6 is $1,843.72 or
77.16%. As long as I don't have a big losing week, I should be
able to stay on target. However, home run weeks like this one are
usually followed by market triple plays, where the market just
shuts down my strategies and hands me significant losses. Next
week should be an interesting one.<br />
<br />
<b>Starting Capital: </b>$1,040.73<br />
<b>Current Balance:</b> $1,877.37<br />
<br />
<b>Performance:</b> 80.39%<br />
</big><big><br />
<u><b>Week Performance<br />
</b></u> 1 13.14%<br />
2 17.71%<br />
3 <span style="color: red;">- 10.54%</span><br />
4 18.62%<br />
5 39.05%<br />
<br />
<i><b>CAS</b></i></big>
</div>
Forex Idiothttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09791539197865041815noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1907972717772961929.post-78138547132711300712012-10-26T20:30:00.000-04:002012-11-12T17:43:27.546-05:00Week 4: Join me as we find out how quickly can I lose $1,040.73!<br />
<div class="moz-text-html" lang="x-western">
<big>This week was another double digit week. I needed this shot in
the arm as last week's similar losses had me doubting my new
investing system. Still, this week's gains were not enough to put
me back on target. Had I achieved my goal of 10% weekly growth,
with compounding I'd be up 46.41% right now. As it is, I am up
only 41.34%. I am hoping that with the lessons learned from Week
3, I'll be able to limit my losses and get back on track.<br />
<br />
Another thing that is getting kind of tricky is how much should I
increase the size of my trades as my account keeps growing. I
obviously have to increase the trade size in order to keep the
same percentage growth on a growing account. However, if I
increase it too much or too soon, I run the risk of sucking up all
my margin and wiping my holdings. This actually happened in Week
3. So far, I have settled on increasing 1 mini lot on one of my
strategies every time the account goes up $500. Next mini lot
increase is when the account reaches $2,000. Hopefully, in 3
weeks.<br />
<br />
</big><big><b>Starting Capital:</b> $1,040.73<br />
<b>Current Balance: </b>$1,470.97<br />
<br />
<b>Performance</b>: 41.34%<br />
<br />
<u><b>Week Performance<br />
</b></u> 1 13.14%<br />
2 17.71%<br />
3 <span style="color: red;">- 10.54%</span><br />
4 18.62%<br />
<br />
<i><b>CAS</b></i></big></div>
Forex Idiothttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09791539197865041815noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1907972717772961929.post-34772841836609671332012-10-21T21:00:00.000-04:002012-11-12T17:40:55.461-05:00Week 3: Join me as we find out how quickly can I lose $1,040.73!<br />
<div class="moz-text-html" lang="x-western">
Last week was our first losing week. Even though we did recover a
good part of the initial loss, we still closed the week down 10.54%
from when the week started. A lot of the people that post on the
forex forums I read also had similar losses so I will chuck it down
to the market and not my strategy. I hope this week proves to be a
bit more sane. The whipsaws and fakeouts of last week were just
crazy. Funny enough, I run a second account that had about $680
when the week started. I tried some short term conservative
strategies in that one with no aggressive strats. That account
actually went up 5% for the week. Maybe I should keep track of both
accounts to see how the strategies compare.<br />
<br />
Our current performance is not bad. I certainly won't complain if
after 12 months of trading I end up averaging 6% per week. However,
I am shooting for 10%.<br />
<br />
<b>Starting Capital:</b> $1,040.73<br />
<b>Current Balance: </b>$1,240.02<br />
<br />
<b>Performance</b>: 19.15%<br />
<br />
<u><b>Week Performance<br />
</b></u> 1 13.14%<br />
2 17.71%<br />
3 - 10.54%<br />
<br />
<i><b>CAS</b></i></div>
Forex Idiothttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09791539197865041815noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1907972717772961929.post-31989083476395805642012-10-15T10:30:00.000-04:002012-11-12T17:38:40.151-05:00Join me as we find out how quickly can I lose $1,040.73!Ok, I funded my forex account this year with $3k. Following the
advise of "experts", it went down to $1,040.73 in one and a half
week. I decided to diversify currencies and mix long term with
short term strategies from different books and online seminars,
instead of following gurus. I started this experiment on Oct. 1,
2012. It is going so unbelievably well that I decided to share it
publicly. Of course, appearing too good to be true, I'm sure it'll
blow up in my face sooner or later. Until that time, I'll post weekly updates so you can join me in this
train-wreck-about-to-happen. Below are the results of my two weeks
of trading. I'll send you an update next week. <br />
<br />
<b>Starting Capital:</b> $1,040.73<br />
<b>Current Balance: </b>$1,386.05<br />
<br />
<b>Performance</b>: 33.18%<br />
<br />
<u><b>Week Performance<br />
</b></u> 1 13.14%<br />
2 17.71%<br />
<br />
<i><b>Gotta luv the power of compounding</b></i>!!<br />
<br />
<i><b>CAS</b></i>Forex Idiothttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09791539197865041815noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1907972717772961929.post-51455117906606352132012-04-25T14:07:00.001-04:002012-04-25T14:07:26.437-04:00Why I Am Keeping The AudUsd Short<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEihBkwlUeJh2ggGSTjtaQg7wVlhXEHwukaLAH1A6DYl_qOPC1pYmbnyrZsOoFTnpbOpiIOjvZTbnGr3TMx0JrGKNUedYPEhMU32ueSx7iGdD_S2zxt5vaqihZaGwr6Oxj2dpTLx6hAN5DY/s1600/audusd+h4.gif" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" height="234" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEihBkwlUeJh2ggGSTjtaQg7wVlhXEHwukaLAH1A6DYl_qOPC1pYmbnyrZsOoFTnpbOpiIOjvZTbnGr3TMx0JrGKNUedYPEhMU32ueSx7iGdD_S2zxt5vaqihZaGwr6Oxj2dpTLx6hAN5DY/s320/audusd+h4.gif" width="320" /></a></div>
If you have been following my tweeter feed, you know that on April 23, I shorted the AudUsd at 1.02899, after it broke resistance at 1.02979. It went as far down as 1.02461 on April 24, a profit of 46.8 pips Since then, the position is down some 51 pips.<br />
<br />
Since April 13, the AudUsd has been experiencing a series of lower highs, as you can see by looking at the red trendline in this 4-hour chart. I am hoping this trend will continue, so I will keep open this losing position.<br />
<br />
If you are an Elliot-wave theorist. You will probably notice that the 5th wave closed on April 24. Thus, I expect some sideways movement. Maybe a breach of the trendline, not to exceed 1.03902 for a few days. At that point, I'll reevaluate whether to close the trade or give it some more room to play out.Forex Idiothttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09791539197865041815noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1907972717772961929.post-16194062308413780272011-11-14T22:12:00.001-05:002011-11-14T22:33:02.311-05:00Creeping BackWow, it has been a long time... since June, huh? To make a long story short, I've been losing my shirt and more by relying on expert advisors and the like. Changed strategies for the month of October and profited a bit over 19% on my FinFx account. Went back to expert advisors in November and they blew up my account. Something like $23 left on it. <br />
<br />
The big $10k account that was posting double digit profits at the end of 2010 was down to $1,873 Monday morning. How do we turn $1.8k back to $10k in seven months? Stay tuned to find out.Forex Idiothttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09791539197865041815noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1907972717772961929.post-3066403621757263432011-06-03T17:36:00.000-04:002011-06-03T17:36:51.826-04:00May 30 - June 3: What Goes Around Comes AroundWe got nailed last week and then this week we did the nailing. By taking profits every 100 pips and moving our stop loss we were able to pull a profit of 9.19% this week. Right now our account stands at $3,576.73, which is 10.57% lower than it was in April. Let's see if we can make up that difference before June is over.<br />
<br />
I want to spend more time talking about the account I discussed in my last post. The $5k account opened with FinFx at 1:200 leverage and allowing hedging. Trading this account this week was the roller coaster of my life. At one point early in the week, my open trades were losing so much money that my equity eventually was about 35% of my original investment. Going from $5k to less than $2k in a matter of hours will clear your arteries... and your bowels, too. <br />
<br />
To prevent a margin call and the resulting total meltdown, I closed my biggest loser and tailored down the positions opened throughout the rest of the week to not incur so much margin. The trade I closed lost me a bit over $1k. That's 20% of my account lost in three days. I let the remaining trades ride out to see what happened. Some of them went as far down as an additional $1k and others remained between $300 to $800 down. At the same time, I made a few profitable trades that increased my breathing room a bit.<br />
<br />
I know it sounds irresponsible, letting the accumulating losses ride out and increase the loss. However, I thought back to last week. Monday the market turned against us big time, we closed out our trades with big losses and the market turned back around. After looking at upcoming news, I concluded that, like last week, the market would again turn around. I decided to put my money where my mouth is and so kept the losing trades open in the expectation that the market would turn around and either put those trades back in the green or at least let me close them for a smaller loss.<br />
<br />
The market did turn around although not with the intensity I desired. At market close today, I still have eight open trades. Five of those trades are in the red although only two of those are of the original trades that brought my equity down to 35%. The rest recovered and closed for a profit. At market close, the equity in my account was at $6,219.53. Not only did we recover that $1k loss from early in the week, we still managed to make a profit of 24.39%.<br />
<br />
Returns of 24.39% in a week are incredible. However, if trading this account next week will be as harrowing as it was this week, I will need to readjust the seatbelt in my wheelchair and get a prescription for Valium. I don't know that I can otherwise handle the excitement.Forex Idiothttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09791539197865041815noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1907972717772961929.post-88886418845628204772011-05-29T22:56:00.000-04:002011-05-29T22:56:32.769-04:00May 23- 27: Giving It All Back, Again...Wow, what a crappy Monday! Woke up Monday morning to discover I had gotten stopped out of a bunch of trades and the technicals had changed in a bunch of other trades. Thus, started the week giving back all my profit and incurring a slight loss.<br />
<br />
All that changed Wednesday. We went long on the AudUsd, EurUsd and the GbpUsd, and shorted the UsdJpy. I guess my opinion on the US Dollar is pretty clear as I just bet against it almost every which way I could. Following my strategy of taking profit every 100 pips and moving the stop loss, by Friday we had already recouped our loss and were in fact about 0.1% in profit not counting our open trades, which are right now up an additional 0.54%. Small steps, lets see where they take us.<br />
<br />
On Thursday evening I started trading a new account funded with $5k. I opened it with FinFx in Finland. Contrary to stateside brokers who limit the leverage in your account to 1:50 and do not allow hedging, FinFx gives 1:200 leverage and allows hedging. Just like I did for Turbo Forex Morning Trade, I will open a new page in the log for this account that I will trade very aggressively.<br />
<br />
Finally, I know I've been slacking on the tweets this week. I'll try to be more diligent this week.Forex Idiothttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09791539197865041815noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1907972717772961929.post-50048824188955734112011-05-22T22:59:00.000-04:002011-05-22T22:59:06.921-04:00May 16 - The Week In ReviewNot much to tell since we've been tweeting our transactions in real time. Basically, we made an additional 2.62% this week. After getting used to making 10-20% per week, this slow going takes getting used to. However, if it can save us from the nukes that come with double digit weekly profits then it might work just as well or even better in the long run.<br />
<br />
I do want to comment on a trade I just closed for a loss. Some weeks ago I shorted 4 micro lots of the EurUsd at 1.43654. When we were 150 pips in profit, we closed 1 micro lot and moved the stop loss to break even. Then last week I got a signal to go long on the Lindencourt Daily strategy. I went long 3 micro lots and figured it would act as a hedge. At one point, we were over 100 pips in profit. At that point I usually take some profits off the table and move the stop loss to break even. However, since I was thinking of using at as a hedge instead of following my usual strategy, I kept the trade open. On Friday the EurUsd dropped over 150 pips, so I closed the trade tonight for a loss of 101.3 pips. <br />
<br />
Conclusion: the moment you deviate from your rules, that's when the trade that will nail you will show its colors. If I'd followed my rules, on Thursday I would have closed 1 micro lot for a profit of 100 pips and moved my stop loss to break even. The end result would have been a small profit as the bulk of my position got stopped out at break even. Instead, my full position got closed at a big 101.3 pips loss.<br />
<br />
This also ties into the recommended strategy of not risking more than 2% of your total account per trade. Because of my current balance, I can trade 4 micro lots with a stop loss of 150 pips and risk 2% or less of my account balance. Trading like this gives your account resilience, as it gives you less exposure to huge drawdowns and more opportunities to make back the money lost.<br />
<br />
Finally, the week starting tonight is going to be very tough for me. It is starting with two big losses. The EurUsd loss I explained above and a 53.2 pips loss on my full 4 micro lots of the EurGbp. Between those two losses, I lost almost as much as I made last week. I will be very lucky if I can break even this week.Forex Idiothttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09791539197865041815noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1907972717772961929.post-27597839880481316432011-05-16T01:13:00.000-04:002011-05-16T01:13:37.678-04:00Taking Some Profits Off The TableWe had a profitable week, although it was a bit less than 1%. Still, that is always better than a loss.<br />
<br />
Last week I mentioned that I was selling 4 micro lots of the EurUsd based on a combination of the Parabolic SAR and SuperTrend indicators. Before the close of the week, we were 150 pips in the money so we closed 25% of our position and moved our stop loss to break even. This means that we are now guaranteed a profit in this trade even if the EurUsd changes direction. After this partial close, the EurUsd changed direction. Relying on our SAR/SuperTrend long term outlook and bollinger bands on a shorter time frame chart, we sold 4 micro lots of the EurUsd at 1.42272 and closed that trade 22 hours later for another 150 pips profit. Right now, we still hold 3 micro lots of the original short sale at 1.43654. They are roughly 282 pips in profit as I write this.<br />
<br />
On the AudUsd, we were watching stochastics for a possible entry on the short side. We got our entry signal on Thursday, May 12, and shorted 4 micro lots at 1.06528. As I write this, this trade is 93 pips in profit. I think this trade has about two days of steam left in it. I do not think we'll get to 150 pips, but I'll be closing 25% of our position and moving our stop loss to break even if we do. In any event, we'll keep a close eye on the daily chart and get out of the trade when the market tells us to.<br />
<br />
I opened a new trade tonight. I sold 4 micro lots of the GbpChf (British Pound/Swiss Franc) at 1.4406. I got in the trade about an hour and 45 minutes later than I would have liked simply because I was busy with other stuff. The trade is down 4.6 pips right now but I am not too worried. After all, the spread is 8.5 pips so it has basically moved 4 pips in my favor since I placed my trade.<br />
<br />
Our two remaining positions are a 4 micro lot short of the GbpJpy, which is currently 46 pips in profit and a 4 micro lot short of the UsdChf, which is losing me 89.4 pips. I placed a 150 pip stop loss on this trade but may close it before we reach the full stop loss depending on what happens from now until 5:00 p.m. The UsdChf is currently trading below its 100 EMA, appears to be overbought and the fast stochasitc is barely below the slow one. I'd like to see the UsdChf lose some price today to feel more comfortable about this trade.<br />
<br />
What I am watching: I am currently watching the UsdJpy. It is up since the open at 5:00 p.m. However, a move down during the day may be just what that pair needs to start heading down again. Therefore, depending on price movement today, I may be shorting the UsdJpy.Forex Idiothttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09791539197865041815noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1907972717772961929.post-85419943048740231672011-05-09T14:56:00.001-04:002011-05-09T15:05:39.482-04:00Giving Back Our ProfitLast week's AudUsd and EurUsd corrections hurt our account but not as much as having an expert advisor named Autopipbot. About 60% of our profit was lost in three consecutive trades by this EA. Needless to say, it is no longer in use. The rest was given back in the correction. Fortunately, we had been taking profits throughout the last two weeks, so we really did not give back all our profit, just most of it. Still, we made a little profit where many people got burnt.<br />
<br />
Between May 3 - 5, the AudUsd gave back some 462 pips from its highest point that week. This pair is still trading above its 100 EMA. Stochastics are such that if the AudUsd closes today anywhere near its current level, we may have the making of a Lindencourt daily trade. If so, I will be going long at the open of Tuesday's market - that would be today at 5:00 p.m.<br />
<br />
The EurUsd gave back roughly 686 pips in three days. Although it is up some 70+ pips since then, I believe there's some downside left in that pair and I in fact shorted it last night at about 6:00 p.m. based on Parabolic SAR and SuperTrend indicators, as well as Greece's credit rating being cut to B from BB-. I am not 100% convinced on this trade, as the SAR can produce false signals if the pair starts ranging instead of trending, so we bought about 4 micro lots with a 150 pip stop loss.Forex Idiothttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09791539197865041815noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1907972717772961929.post-59083655042851033072011-05-01T20:35:00.000-04:002011-05-01T20:35:21.151-04:00AUD/USD - Closing 1/3 of Our PositionWe got a couple of things coming down the pipe in Australia... House Price Index in about 45 minutes... Index of Commodity Prices at 2:30 a.m., the R.B.A.'s interest rate statement on Tuesday at 12:30 a.m., building approvals and retail sales on Wednesday... I decided that I will lower my exposure to these upcoming events. I just closed about a third of my position in the AudUsd for a gain of 236 pips. If I am awake when those statements are announced, I'll have some free margin to play them. If I am not, at least I do not risk waking up to a big loss in my portfolio.Forex Idiothttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09791539197865041815noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1907972717772961929.post-15226982604166066582011-04-29T22:18:00.000-04:002011-04-29T22:18:47.052-04:00April 24 - The Week in ReviewI really was not looking to have as good a week as the one before but at the very least I wanted to make some pips. Breaking even is no longer acceptable. In the end, I think we did pretty good.<br />
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After last week's 11.7% gain, our account started this week at $3,662.92. This week we closed several trades for a profit of $368.09. That's a 10.04% return in one week. Two double digit weeks in a row, awesome! Even nicer, we have four open trades for an additional $667.45. That would put this week's profit at $1,035.54 or 28.27%. However, since we haven't closed those trades I will not count them for my official weekly profit. Thus, for the week of April 24 I am recording a profit of 10.04% with our account standing at $4,031.01<br />
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We were able to produce this awesome result by using a mix of short and long term strategies using Bollinger Bands and Ichimoku Kinko Hyo, as well as playing the F.O.M.C. announcement. Can we have another 24% week again? Not likely. Well, maybe. A big part of our profit came from playing the F.O.M.C. Statement and interest rate announcement. This release occurs every quarter so maybe three months from now we can do it again. On Monday, the Institute for Supply Management releases the Purchasing Manager's Index. I wonder if we can make a similar play with this announcement.Forex Idiothttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09791539197865041815noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1907972717772961929.post-31132951900524756702011-04-28T20:09:00.001-04:002011-04-28T20:11:50.566-04:00Aussie C.P.I. and British G.D.P.: UPDATEThe Australian C.P.I. increased by 1.6%, exceeding the 1.2% forecast. During the Aussie's upward climb, we cleared some profits from the table. We closed 26% of our position on the AudUsd netting 100 pips in a position we held for three days. This was a low risk transaction that netted us 3% of our portfolio value. If only I could average 1% profits daily...<br />
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As to the Pound, you may recall that my plan was to <i>"close my position on the GbpJpy for about 30 pips in 16 hours and half of my position on the GbpChf for about 80 pips in 3 hours. I'm also going to move my stop loss on the GbpChf to break even."</i> By the time I posted that entry, the Gbp had tanked and the scenario changed drastically. I was up 30 pips on the GbpJpy when I started writing that blog entry. When I finished it and turned to my trading platform, my 30 pip profit had turned into an 83 pip loss. My GbpChf profit of 80 pips had turned into a 67 pip profit. Lesson learned? From now on I'll write about what I did and not about what I plan to do. I think there's a saying about this kind of stuff. Something about not counting your chickens before you lead a horse to water...<br />
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Yesterday's F.O.M.C. Statement and interest rate releases proved a fun and profitable event. After the announcement, we went long 3 mini lots on the EurUsd. We closed one third of that position 13.5 hours later for a profit of 156.3 pips. That's a profit of 4.73% of our total portfolio value in a bit over half a day. This makes 1% daily profit look like crap! The remaining position is up 140 pips. Although the EurUsd is trading near resistance levels, I think that it will set new highs within the next two weeks.<br />
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I'll post a an account update after the close tomorrow. We might not match last week's 11.7% gain but I am pretty sure we'll be profitable.Forex Idiothttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09791539197865041815noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1907972717772961929.post-60300608729160896592011-04-26T22:08:00.001-04:002011-04-26T22:15:25.387-04:00Australian C.P.I. And British G.D.P.Two Mondays ago, when I returned to my blogging and investing, my account was at $3.2k. Right now it is sitting at $4.1k. That's a bit less than 30% in a week and two days. Of that roughly $900 gain, $320 are still in open trades. This is where things get dicey...<br />
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At 9:30 p.m., the Australian C.P.I. will be released. Although this data is pretty late in comparison with inflation data from other countries, it is still likely to to create hefty market movement. The past three quarters, the C.P.I. has failed to meet expectations and has sent the Australian dollar ("Aussie") reeling. After the price movement the past 2 weeks, I'd expect a positive release. Otherwise, the Aussie could be giving back a lot of room. Why do we care care about this? Our currency portfolio is heavily invested in the Aussie. 70% of our portfolio is long on the Aussie, which explains why we gained 30% in just 9 days. I'll be up at this time of the evening. Therefore I'll close or keep my positions open depending on the news.<br />
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At 4:30 a.m., April 27, the British Preliminary G.D.P. will be released. Since the Preliminary is the earliest of the three releases (the Revised and Final each follow a month apart) it also tends to have the most impact. While reports from <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-04-21/u-k-economy-expanded-0-5-in-first-quarter-economists-say.html">Bloomberg</a> suggest that Britain will meet the 0.5% forecast, sentiment in <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/jeremy-warner/8472241/The-painkillers-are-wearing-off-for-many-the-real-recession-starts-now.html">British media</a> is that this could be the beginning of the recession. Also released at 4:30 a.m. will be the BBA's Mortgage Approvals and the Index of Services. Why do we care about this? Guess where the remaining 30% of our portfolio is at. Yep, we are short on the British Pound split evenly between the GbpJpy and the GbpChf. Price movement in the past three days would suggest bad news for the Sterling Pound but I am not so sure. Therefore, I am going to close my position on the GbpJpy for about 30 pips in 16 hours and half of my position on the GbpChf for about 80 pips in 3 hours. I'm also going to move my stop loss on the GbpChf to break even. That way, I can still let some profits run if he GbpUsd tanks. As for our FMT robot, I'll lower our risk by half so that w do not get burnt too badly if volatility throws our EA for a loop. <br />
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Hopefully, I'll be awake by 12:30 p.m., when the U.S. F.O.M.C. releases its Statement and Interest Rate. I'm sure we'll find more than one way to enjoy part of the roller coaster that the release should produce.Forex Idiothttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09791539197865041815noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1907972717772961929.post-79408624279803669412011-04-25T11:07:00.001-04:002011-04-28T20:21:09.409-04:00Forex Morning Trade<a href="http://www.forexmorningtrade.com/">Forex Morning Trade</a> is an expert advisor that looks quite promising. After reading multiple reviews from real users who swear by it, I decided to take the plunge and buy it. I also bought the more advanced Turbo Forex Morning Trade. I have 60 days to try them both out and can return them for a full refund for any reason, no questions asked. I decided to purchase the Turbo version because it offers a plethora of options to handle different profit targets, tracking trailing stop losses by actual pips or a combination of ATRs and much more. All these options are a dream come true for a geek like me.<br />
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The way FMT works is quite different from most EAs. It is designed to trade only one currency pair, the GbpUsd, and only during a brief period at the opening of the London session. For example, I have set Turbo FMT to operate from 6:15 a.m. to 6:30 a.m. London time, or 1:15 a.m. to 1:30 a.m. EST. The EA may or may not generate a signal during that 15 minute period. If generated, it automatically places an order in accordance with the signal. If the order isn't executed before 6:30 a.m., then it is cancelled and we try again tomorrow.<br />
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I opened two $500 demo account with FinFx. One is running FMT with the settings recommended by its creator Mark Fric. The other is running Turbo FMT with setting customized by myself. Although it was recommended to not trade today, I decided to go ahead and put the system to the test. FMT did not generate any signals, but Turbo FMT generated a buy signal. It purchased 0.17 lots of the GbpUsd. Several hours later the trade was closed at break even. At one point, we were 27 pips in profit, a bit over $45.90. The market turned on us and we got stopped out at our entry price. When I last checked, the GbpUsd was down 49 pips or a bit over $84.00. So, we didn't make any profit but we also did not suffer that huge loss (almost 17% in just one trade).<br />
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I will make a new page to track the performance of this EA. I think it will be quite exiting in the long run.Forex Idiothttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09791539197865041815noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1907972717772961929.post-40278744229760765942011-04-23T02:13:00.000-04:002011-04-23T02:13:57.354-04:00Back After Huge LossesEver since the Middle East unrest, I've been losing money non-stop to the point that my big test account dropped from over $11k to a bit over $3.2k. I am back to rebuilding it in a hurry. My goal is to recover the almost 63.37% I lost and make a profit before the year is over. As I write this, the account is at $3,662.92, with an additional $109.03 in open trades. To recover the money lost and get back to breakeven, I need to make 273% profits. Nice challenge!<br />
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I will be using a mix of expert advisors and manual trading. I will also be testing a bunch of other indicators, advisors and strategies in other demo accounts. If they prove profitable, I'll look to incorporating them into the live account.<br />
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A full statement of the account can be found <a href="http://www.mt4i.com/users/casteffens">in this link</a>. It shows every single deposit, trade, etc. You can also filter the results by week and other time frames. For example, if you click on "stats", it will show you that we are averaging -4.1% weekly return and a -16.2% monthly return since we started this on November 2010. <b>Total failure!</b> However, if you filter it by week, you will see that we did 11.7% profit this week. Let's see if we can repeat that performance a few more times... like 27 more times.<br />
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That's it for tonight. I'll update you all next week. Hopefully, it will be good news.Forex Idiothttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09791539197865041815noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1907972717772961929.post-10887329703709409602011-02-01T11:21:00.000-05:002011-02-01T11:21:21.310-05:00Thoughts: 11:10 A.M.After finding resistance at its 2-month high of 1.3776, the Eur/Usd made a substantial move higher. I got a clear signal using my aggressive strategy and entered a trade while the Eur/Usd was at 1.3765. I think the next resistance level will be around 1.3820. If the Eur/Usd brakes that level, I can see it going to 1.3973 before the month is over. Just in case, I am running a trailing stop loss of 38 pips.<br />
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Now, I didn't get any clear signal in my conservative strategy. There was a possible signal about 7 hours before the one I got in my aggressive strategy and which would have been incredibly profitable. However, that was at 5:00 a.m. where I live and I was sleeping. In any event, I think I can make the conservative strategy more profitable by increasing the trailing stop loss. Currently, I am setting it pursuant to an ATR(10) on the hourly chart. I will continue trading on the hourly chart but will now use the ATR(10) on the 4-hour chart to calculate my trailing stop.Forex Idiothttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09791539197865041815noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1907972717772961929.post-18049068212784722472011-02-01T03:07:00.000-05:002011-02-01T03:07:57.970-05:00Week 1: Both Strategies UpWeek 1 encompassed from January 24 through January 28. Our conservative strategy started the week at $10,427.53 and closed the week at $11,418.41. That's a profit of $990.88 or 9.50%. I missed my target of 11.74% but I cannot complain about an almost 10% profit in a week. If we could achieve $990.99 every week we could generate a nice income of $42,905.10 in a year, and that's taking two months off from trading. <br />
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Our aggressive strategy did surprisingly better. Of course, it is easy to be this aggressive when you are dealing with only $137.86. We closed the week at $175.09. That's a profit of $37.26 or 27.03%. Would I try this strategy if I had $10,000? I don't know, but I do hope I get the chance to find out.<br />
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As it stands, our strategies and the markets performed as follows:<br />
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DJIA: Down 0.42%<br />
NASDAQ: Down 0.23%<br />
SP500: Down 0.53%<br />
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Conservative: Up 9.50%<br />
Aggressive: Up 27.03%<br />
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Caveat: On Thursday we took long positions on the Eur/Usd, which closed down Friday some 134 pips. Since these trades will close on Week 2, their profit/loss will be accounted therein.Forex Idiothttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09791539197865041815noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1907972717772961929.post-4116969108285905382011-01-24T11:23:00.000-05:002011-01-24T11:23:12.695-05:002011: New Year, New StrategyTraditionally, many people stop trading the Forex from about December 15 to about January 15. The reason is that the volatility during this period is quite unpredictable and irrational. I basically took off the month of December and pretty much most of January, too.<br />
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Today I dive back into the Forex. This time I am managing an account with a balance of $10,427.53. Since it is not my money, I will be using a much more conservative approach than what I was using for my own money last year. I will keep working my aggressive strategy with my own $137.83, but I will update the status of that experiment on a quarterly basis only and not weekly.<br />
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Catch you all next week, when I will post the results of this week's trading.Forex Idiothttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09791539197865041815noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1907972717772961929.post-74230116762349447052010-11-30T19:55:00.000-05:002010-11-30T19:55:56.191-05:00Test Results Week 7: Up 20.07%Test Week 7 started on November 24 and ended on November 30, 2010. I placed 6 trades, with no losers. Can't say I traded with 100% accuracy, though. One of my trades just resulted in getting stopped out at my entry price. Still, that is always better than a loss. My goal was to make $29.00 or 12.33% of the amount I started Test Week 7 with. Instead I made $47.20 or 20.07%.<br />
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Test Week 7 was a little unusual in that there was a day that I did not trade even though the market was open. That day was Thursday, November 25. I was invited to an awesome Thanksgiving dinner on the island's east coast, so I left home early and came back late. I do not think I even turned on the computer that day so I cannot even talk about missed trading opportunities... and with 20% profits in one week, who cares about missed trading opportunities?<br />
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In my last post I talked about changing the way in which I was reading my indicators. I know that this change saved me from what would have been a big wipe out trade this week. I think I am now getting less opportunities than before but I am hoping that they are more solid and with a higher probability of success than the previous signals. It seemed to work out that way this past week. Let's see what happens in the ongoing week.Forex Idiothttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09791539197865041815noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1907972717772961929.post-2987905222288223502010-11-29T16:18:00.000-05:002010-11-29T16:18:15.247-05:00Test Results Week 6: Up 9.86%Test Week 6 started on November 17 and ended on November 23, 2010. I placed 18 trades of which 4 were losers, so I traded with a 77.78% accuracy. My goal was to make $25.00 or 11.68% of the amount I started Test Week 6 with. Instead I made $21.10 or 9.86%.<br />
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During Test Week 6 I incurred huge losses that, when viewed against the fact that the week still ended profitably, only serve to emphasize how much money there is to be made in this market. Test Week 6 started with $214.10. Four days into the trade week, I lost $49.00 in one trade. That's almost twice my profit target for the whole week and close to 23% of my account. Yet, we managed to make up this huge loss and still end the week up almost 10%. With better loss management, we could have made close to 30% in just this week.<br />
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For the last few weeks, the recurrent story has been profits between the high 20% and low 30% that end up being wiped out by one single trade. There are several reasons for this. First, the EurUsd has seen some weird and spiky fluctuations in the short term charts with all the Ireland, Greece, Portugal bail outs and rumors. Second, this is a trading strategy that is in development and just last week I re-configured my indicators and the way of reading their signals. I started with this new or improved strategy Wednesday last week. Lets see how it works out.Forex Idiothttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09791539197865041815noreply@blogger.com0